[Long’s View] End Of AGM Season Note (VHM) 16.05.2018 (Delayed)

Summary

  • DJ dropped as treasury yields spiked, returning to multi-year highs. In Vietnam, we have another high value liquidities trading day in derivatives (USD 271 million vs USD 221 million of.
  • VHM Vinhomes. The latest ticker will be listed tomorrow. VHM’s current revenue scale and land fund are ranked 1st among the listed real estate firms.
  • End of AGM season note. The only summary report that investors need. the below companies set 2018 which are on average 17% growth in Sales and 16% growth in EBT.
  • AGM note Including: Banking sector: TCB, MBB, CTG, VCB, SHB, VIB, TPB; Insurance: BIC, PVI, VNR; Oil & Gas: GAS, PVB, PLX; Real Estate:NLG, DXG, PDR, CEO, VCG, VPI, HDG, HPX, KBC, SJS; Construction: HBC, FCN, PC1; Construction Materials: HPG, NKG, VIS, NTP, VIT, CVT, HT1;Rubber, tires and tubes: DRI, DRC; Industry Chemicals: DGC, CSV, PLC; Retail: PNJ, Consumer: VNM, VJC, THA; IT: FPT; pharmacy: DHG, DVN,textile: TNG, STK.

Dear Value Clients and partners;

DJ dropped as treasury yields spiked, returning to multi-year highs. In Vietnam, we have another high value liquidities trading day in derivatives (USD 271 million vs USD 221 million of equity). Big pullback section led by consumer staple (-3.03%), finance (-2.13%) while 8/10 sectors down. The only survivors of the day are Utilities (+0.21%) and Energy (-0.02%).

Today’s Markets

· Indexes : VN-Index -1.76%, HNX-Index -1.75%, Upcom -0.50%

· Active : HOSE: VNM, CTG, HPG, NVL, VCB. HNX: ACB, PVS, SHB, VGC, DST.

· Index movers : Leader: GAS, SAB, DIG, TCH, PVD Laggard: VNM, VCB, VIC, BID, MSN

· Foreigner, Buy: BCG, DXG, CTG, GAS, FRT. Sell: VNM, VRE, VIC, HDB, NVL.

· Notice stocks : VNM, TCH, BMP, DIG, GMD, GEX, OGC, DST, TTB, VGS, PMC, ND2, PVM, SMB.

· Trading volume : ~ 226.4 million shares

· Trading value : VND 5033.5 bil ~ 221.7 USD mil

· Foreigner transaction Net: -2.0 mil USD Sell 34 USD million and Buy 32.1 USD million

· Derivative market: Trading value ~ USD 271.4 million; VN30F1805@ 1,032; VN30F1806@ 1,040.8; VN30F1809@ 1,062.3; VN30F1812@ 1,082.4

Corporate update:

· VHM Vinhomes. The latest ticker will be listed tomorrow.VHM’s current revenue scale and land fund are ranked 1st among the listed real estate firms, in which its land fund is 20.5 times higher than the second largest real estate firm, with 164 million meter square of floor space. The construction of the eco – system is a special competitive advantage of Vinhomes compared to other competitors in the same industry. Hightlights:

o Total number of contracts expected to be implemented by VHM in 2018 is 12 projects, 3 times higher than the average for 2015-2017 period of 4 projects/year. VHM’s products range from the Affordable/Intermediate segment to Premium segment with representatives as Vincity and Vinhome respectively.

o Gross profit margin of the real estate segment and the implementation, construction time of special projects are higher than the industry’s average. Due to most of VHM’s projects belonging to the premium segment, gross profit margin remains at relatively high level compared to the industry’s average, reaching 38% in 2017.

o Healthy financial status and a surplus of cash flow are advantages of VHM’s business operation thanks to its prestigious brand and essential land fund locations.

Investment Risks: Potential risks from government policy, the real estate cycle, the risk of delaying the implementation and delivery of projects, and the market’s capability to absorb the new Vincity line.

Comments:

· End of AGM season note. The only summary report that investors need to read for the 2018 AGM. The BSC’s analysts have participated in these congresses to collect and evaluate the information provided. Overall, the below companies set 2018 which are on average 17% growth in Sales and 16% growth in EBT which is more conservative compare to Q1 of 2018 ’s EAT growth (21% yoy). There are very few large cap and bluechip to carry AGM soon: VIC, VRE, VHM, BSR, POW, OIL, CTD, VGC and VGT.

· AGM note Including: Banking sector: TCB, MBB, CTG, VCB, SHB, VIB, TPB; Insurance: BIC, PVI, VNR; Oil & Gas: GAS, PVB, PLX; Real Estate:NLG, DXG, PDR, CEO, VCG, VPI, HDG, HPX, KBC, SJS; Construction:HBC, FCN, PC1; Construction Materials: HPG, NKG, VIS, NTP, VIT, CVT, HT1;Rubber, tires and tubes: DRI, DRC; Industry Chemicals: DGC, CSV, PLC; Retail: PNJ, Consumer: VNM, VJC, THA; IT: FPT; pharmacy: DHG, DVN,textile: TNG,STK.Please take a look herefor your reference.

Graph of the day 16th May 2018: 10Y bond yield highest since 2011

bond yeild 10 y US G Bond 16.0-5.2018

Source: HeisenbergBloomberg

Cheers

Long Tran

Head of Research and Institutional Clients

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