[Long’s View] Vietnam Q1’s Result Update (PVI) 10.05.2018 (Delayed)

Summary

  • The day full of news: Dollar declines, treasuries climb, Dr. Mahathir back to the Malaysian PM and Israel hit Iranian targets in Syria.the market declines sharply like falling dagger.
  • PVI (Mkt Cap $313 Mil – Current price 34,300 VND/cp – P/E Forward 19.1x – P/B forward 1.1x – FO 49%). Having the largest non-life market share and low valuation.
  • Q1’s result update. In the meantime, most company already announce their Q1’s number with total PAT of VND 45,598 billion (+21% vs Q1 2017). 616/710 making profit and 46% have.
  • Lower valuation is the only good news when market is down. Thanks to strong growth in earning and falling stocks prices. P/E ratio of Vnindex stand at 18.2 times (if we exclude top 3 highest P/E trailing stocks, the number will be surprisingly much lower 16.16 times).
  • Sector outlook report for Q2 2018.

Dear Value Clients and partners;

The day full of news: Dollar declines, treasuries climb, Dr. Mahathir back to the Malaysian PM and Israel hit Iranian targets in Syria. And yet the market declines sharply like a falling Dagger. Foreigner net buy USD 51 million thank to VIS’s Put through. All sector are down today led by finance and consumer discretionary (down -3.77% to -4.62%). As usual, IT and Healthcare are the only defender left with -0.19% and -0.36%.

Today’s Markets

  • Indexes : VN-Index -2.55%, HNX-Index -2.35%, Upcom -1.00%
  • Active: HOSE: VCB, VIC, CTG, SBT, MBB. HNX: ACB, SHB, PVS, VGC, VCG.
  • Index movers : Leader: BVH, DPM, PC1, QCG, NT2 Laggard: VCB, BID, CTG, VNM, VIC
  • Foreigner, Buy: VIS, HPG, MSN, NVL, SSI. Sell: VND, CTD, VRE, STB, HDB.
  • Notice stocks: VND, CTD, MWG, DCM, VIS, HDC, PGD, GIL, MST, VGS, PMC, ART, NTC, NAW, HD2, TDB, DPG.
  • Trading volume : ~ 271.4 million shares
  • Trading value : VND 7752.2 bil ~ 341.5 USD mil
  • Foreigner transaction Net: 51.1 mil USD Sell 67.7 USD million and Buy 118.8 USD million
  • Derivative market Trading value ~ USD 310.9 million; VN30F1805@ 1,014; VN30F1806@ 1,024; VN30F1809@ 1,038; VN30F1812@ 1,064.8

Corporate update:

  • PVI (Mkt Cap $313 Mil – Current price 34,300 VND/cp – P/E Forward 19.1x – P/B forward 1.1x – FO 49%). Having the largest non-life market share and low valuation compare to peer. Our analyst target the stock at 41,751 VND (+30%).

Q1’s result. Sales VND 1,162 Billion slightly rise and PAT VND 172 billion + 57% yoy. Gross premium revenue growth is expected in late 2018 and early 2019 from the recovery of oil price and PVN’s companies

2018-2019, approximately VND2.400 bil revenue is expected from the Embassy Garden real estate project, which is implemented by VAD – one of PVI’s subsidiaries. Almost all of this project has been sold and the project will delivered in Q3/2018.

Catalyst: FOL raised to 100% in the AGM, PVN divestment, abnormal earning: PVI Tower – VND 1,000 Bil book value and estimated VND 350 Bil of PBT.

Comments:

  • Q1’s result update. In the meantime, most company already announce their Q1’s number with total PAT of VND 45,598 billion (+21% vs Q1 2017). 616/710 making profit and 46% have earning grow vs Q1 2017. 17/20 top companies have PAT growth yoy, with total PAT of VND 29,695 billion on Q1 2018 Top 20 stocks see even higher growth of 39.9% vs Q1 2017, and slightly higher than Q4 2017 by 4.3%.
  • Lower valuation is the only good news when market is down. Thanks to strong growth in earning and falling stocks prices. P/E ratio of Vnindex stand at 18.2 times (if we exclude top 3 highest P/E trailing stocks, the number will be surprisingly much lower)
  • Our team have finished the Sector outlook report for Q2 2018. Please take a look here for your reference.

Graph of the day 10th May 2018: WTI vs Energy sector ETF (2001-2008)

Source: HFI Research

Cheers

Tran Thang Long (Mr.)

Head of Research and Institutional Clients

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s