[Long’s View] A Brief History Of Time: Vietnam Stock Market (GVR) 13.03.2018 (DELAYED)

|Includes: VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

Summary

  • Potential trade war take root and weigh on investor sentiment, VNindexes, VN-Index +0.06%, HNX-Index +0.66%, Upcom +0.42%.
  • GVR Vietnam rubber Group (~VND 13,000/share, market cap USD 2.2 Billion). IPOs 170 million shares to public. The company has vast land bank of 519,870 ha(~4xDanangProvince) in Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam.
  • A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes is a popular-science book by Stephen Hawking. RIP, he is walking among the stars now.
  • A Brief History of VN Stock market. since 2000 annual return 14.2% ; Market cap: USD 30 million to USD 140 Billion; 10% GDP to 69% GDP;Daily liquidity 100 K to over USD 200 Million; Number of accounts 3 thousand to nearly 2 million;
  • It has been a long journey, but not as great as the journey ahead of us all. On 21st March, Upcom Index welcome 2 new members with total market cap of USD 3.3 billion). Vietnam will no longer be a marginal stock market.

Dear Value Clients and partners;

· The S&P 500 and Dow fell for the third straight session as fears over a potential trade war take root and weigh on investor sentiment. The index close with light volume and balanced in sector performance. Best among them are Finance (+1.49%) thanks to rumor on bank’s FOL and strategic offering, Utilities (+1.77%), health care (+1.28%). On the other side, Real estate (-1.45%), Material suffer (-1.41%) followed by Consumer staple (-1.03%). The rest of the sectors stand still.

Today’s Markets

· Indexes, VN-Index +0.06%, HNX-Index +0.66%, Upcom +0.42%

· Active: HOSE: SCR, STB, CTG, FLC and HAG. HNX: SHB, ACB, PVS, PVX, SHS.

· Notice stocks: VRE, VIC, NVL, SSI, SHB, PVI, VGC

· Foreigner: Sell DIG, SAM, VCB, KBC, VGC; Buy: VRE, PVT, VIC, HPG and HAG

· Trading volume: ~ 313.15 milliion shares

· Trading value: VND 7,932 bil ~ 353.51 USD mil

· Derivative market Total contracts: 21,941 contracts, Trading value: VND 2,449 billion ~ USD 109.13 million , VN30F1803@ 1109(-0.40%), VN30F1804@ 1122.2(-0.16%), VN30F1806@ 1136.7(+ 0.00%), VN30F1809@ 1157.6 (+0.01%)

Corporate update:

· GVR Vietnam rubber Group (~VND 13,000/share, market cap of USD 2.2 Billion). GVR has made two IPOs, already sold about 170 million shares to public. The company has vast land bank of 519,870 ha (x4 times bigger than Da Nang Province), in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, of which 96.4% is agricultural land. Our analyst have visit the company and update:

Business result in 2017 and the plan in 2018. VRG’s revenue in FY2017 was estimated at VND19,900 billion (+ 28% YoY). EBT reached VND 3,600 billion (+ 10% YoY). In 2018, the company plans to reach total revenue of 29.457 billion dongs, EAT of 6.080 billion dongs. We note that that revenue does not exclude internal revenue.

Natural Rubber: VRG owns more than 290,000 ha of rubber plan, ~30% of the total rubber plantation area in Vietnam, In 2017: GVR consumption reached 358,108 tons with average selling price of 2017 is 39 million VND/ton, accounting for 70% of the total revenue -> 2018 plan: consumption reached 387,000 tons (+ 8.1% yoy), high competition and rubber price decrease

Wood processing industry: accounted for about 21% of total revenue of VRG. In 2017, EBT of the wood processing sector is about VND 600 billion. Morever, liquidation of rubber wood bring steady revenue stream.

The industrial zone brought high-profit margin (about 30%). However, the proportion was quite small in the structure of the business. In 2017, about 1,282 ha is rented (total 6,000 ha). In 2016-2020, VRG expects to lease about 2100 ha, bring the total leased area to 3,402 ha (56.7% of the total leased land area).

Catalyst: Divestment in Hydropower sector (revenue 500-600 billion VND, the expected profit is about 400 billion VND)

Comments:

· A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes is a popular-science book on cosmology (the study of the universe) by British physicist Stephen Hawking. He attempts to explain a range of subjects in cosmology, including the Big Bang, black holes and light cones, to the non-specialist reader. The book is great to read but not as inspiring as the man. RIP, he is walking among the stars now.

· A Brief History of VN Stock market: From the 100 to 1179. Vnindex offer 14.2% annual return for 17 years (upto 2017). Market cap climb from USD 30 million to USD 140 Billion, from less than 10% GDP to 69% GDP. Daily liquidity rise from less than 100 K to over USD 200 Million. Number of accounts increase from 3 thousand to nearly 2 million (per 96 million people). It has been a long journey, but not as great as the journey ahead of us all.

· New kids on the block. On 21st March, Upcom index welcome 2 new members which are Genco3 EVNGenco3 the power plant (market cap USD 1.1 billion) and GVR Vietnam rubber Group (market cap USD 2.2 billion).

Table of the day 15th March 2018: A Brief History of VN Stock market

Source: BSC

Cheers

Long Tran

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