[Long’s View] Happy International Women’s Day: Bluechip And Midcap (PVT) 07.03.2018 (DELAYED)

|Includes: VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

Summary

  • From Bluechip to Midcap. Open high, close low is surely not a happy day for big stocks while midcap and small cap index end in the green.
  • PVT (VND 18.95 /share, +1.9%, Mkt Cap $250 mil). The biggest company in oil tanker has capacity of Crude oil 300.000 dwt, Clean oil 150.000 dwt, LPG 20.000 dwt.
  • Vietnam February in a minute. The VN-Index and HNX-Inden rose 1% and 1.71% (QoQ), average liquidity on both exchanges declined by 31% to ~$300 million daily, Foreign investors were netbuyerof$150mill.
  • Macro flash: CPI 0.73% MoM, and up 3.15% Ytd, The PMI rose to 53.5 points.Trade balance surplus of 1.08 billion USD ytd.
  • Happy International women’s day. The 8th of March always mark a volatility month ahead in the last 5 years better or worse. 2013 VNindex i 470 to 510 (+8.5%); in 2014 580 to 610 (+5.17%); in 2015  600 to 540 (-10%); in 2016 580 to 550 (-4.3%).

Dear Value Clients and partners;

· From Bluechip to Midcap. Open high, close low is surely not a happy day for big stocks while midcap and small cap index end in the green. The recent high valuation and volatile of big caps seem scare investor toward midcap and small cap. Especially, our Market team remind me that the market are heading to the review day of 2 biggest ETFs (FTSE Vietnam page 9 and Vaneck Vietnam page 10) on 16th of Mar. In term of sectors, Consumer staple rise +1.57% (mostly thanks to VNM), Industry and real estate unchanged. The rest of the sectors closed in red, led by material (-2.78%), finance (-1.81%) and IT (-1.69%).

Today’s Markets:

· Indexes : VN-Index -0.72%, HNX-Index -1.36%, Upcom -0.89%

· Active : HOSE: HPG, VNM, SSI, VPB, CTG. HNX: SHB, ACB, PVS, PVI.

· Index movers : Leader: VNM, ROS, MSN, HNG, SAB Laggard: VCB, PLX, HPG, GAS, CTG

· Foreigner, Buy : DXG, VIC, HSG, VND, PVD. Sell: HPG, VNM, VCB, HDB, GEX

· Notice stocks : VNM, VPB, FLC, DXG, VND, MSN, HAG, MWG, PVI, MBS, KDF.

· Trading volume : ~ 386.4 million shares

· Trading value : VND 9601.9 bil ~ 423 USD mil

· Foreigner transaction Net: +0.4 mil USD Sell 61.1 USD million and Buy 61.5 USD million

· Derivative market: Trading value ~ USD 167.6 million; VN30F1803@ 1087; VN30F1804@ 1093; VN30F1806@ 1107; VN30F1809@ 1125.1

Corporate update:

· PVT (VND 18.95 /share, +1.9%, Mkt Cap $250 mil). The biggest company in oil tanker has capacity of Crude oil 300.000 dwt, Clean oil 150.000 dwt, LPG 20.000 dwt. PVT is the monopoly on crude oil transportation and 90% market share in LPG transportation.

No more demand shortage in 2018 thanks to Binh Son Refinery completed turnaround. Crude oil transportation for this refinery is expected to reach about 7.2 mil ton in 2018 compared with only about 6.5 mil ton in 2017. In addition, PVT plans to transport about 25% of crude oil needs for Nghi Son refinery, expected to officially operate in 2018. Thus we expect that in 2018, crude oil transportation 1,192 bil and account for about 50% of total transportation revenue.

Coal transportation demand from power plants of EVN and PVN. We forecast that in 2018, PVT will transport 1.9 bil ton coal for subsidiaries of EVN and PVN, bringing about 376 bil revenue (contribute 10% of total transportation revenue).

Stable USD income from FSO/FPSO. The uptime of both FSO/FPSO is expected to be at 100%. Conservatively we forecast that rate will be unchanged in 2018, making this segment’s revenue stand at 576 bil (+2%yoy) mostly thanks to USD/VND appreciation.

Catalyst: As disclosed by PVT, by 2019 PVN divest from PVT, decrease its ownership from 51% to 36%, for a strategic partner who already own a VLCC vessel.

Comments:

· Vietnam February in a minute. The VN-Index and HNX-Inden rose 1% and 1.71% (QoQ), average liquidity on both exchanges declined by 31% to ~$300 million daily, Foreign investors were net buyers ~ $150 million ( net sell if exclude VRE), P/E of VN-Index ( 20.70) and HNX index (13.51). Macro flash: CPI 0.73% MoM, and up 3.15% Ytd, The PMI rose to 53.5 points; retail sales of consumer goods and services up 13.2% YoY. New registered FDI and additional capital reached USD 2,091.5 million (down 25% yoy). Trade balance surplus of 1.08 billion USD ytd. VND/USD central exchange rate in February 2018 fluctuated in the range of 22,423 – 22,450 VND/USD, up from the range of 22,386 – 22,441 VND/USD in January.

· Happy International women’s day. The 8th of March always mark a volatility month ahead in the last 5 years better or worse. If vnindex rise on March the 8th, it will jump sharply (and vice versa). After 08/03/2013, VNindex increased from 470 to 510 (+8.5%) in one month. Same thing happened in 2014, Vnindex rise from 580 to 610 (+5.17%) in mid-March. Sadly, from March to April in 2015 and 2016, Vnindex drop from 600 to 540 (-10%) and 580 to 550 (-4.3%) respectively after Women’s day. 08th Mar 2017 Vnindex perfectly balance at 716.6, gain +0.06 point ~ 0.01%, that month VNindex slightly gain.

Table of the day 07th March 2018: our forecast of Vaneck Vector Vietnam ETF review this March

Source: BSC

Cheers

Long Tran

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