[Long’s View] Black Swan And Snow In Hanoi (MBB) 09.02.2018 Delayed

[Long’s View] Black Swan And Snow In Hanoi (MBB) 09.02.2018 Delayed

|Includes: VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

Summary

  • · MBB (28,900, +2.1%, Mkt Cap $2.05 Bil – Current price VND 25,400share – P/E FW 8.0x – P/B 1.4x – FO 20%.) Our analyst target the stocks at 34,100/share.
  • · Global market sell off. The Dow posted its second 1,000-point decline of the week but ending ~80 short of Tuesday’s intraday low. Global stocks plunged for a week and.
  • · Black Swan and Snow in Hanoi. Back to Vietnam, there was snow in Hanoi’s suburban and Black Swan in Hoan Kiem Lake (the birds was moved to other lake.

Dear Value Clients and partners;

Stocks resumed their headlong plunge into the red and end the week with small recovery vs intraday low. The main index stand right at around ~1000 points. 9/10 sectors fell, led by Utilities (-4.27%) and energy (-3.99%) while the rest swing from -0.4% to – 2.76%. It seems that defensive sector perform well as IT slightly down and Healthcare up 1.18%. Heavyweight finance closed slightly unchanged.

Today’s Markets:

· Indexes, VN-Index -1.89%, HNX-Index +0.48%, Upcom +0.04%

· Active: HOSE: STB, HAG, HPG, HNG, FLC. HNX: SHB, PVS, ACB, VCG, DST.

· Foreigner, Buy: VIC, MSN, HDB, HCM, SAB . Sell: HPG, VJC, CII, NVL, KBC.

· Notice stocks: HPG, VNM, PVD, MSN, HBC, PNJ.

· Trading volume: ~ 310.73 million shares

· Trading value: VND 7385.18 bil ~ 329.11 USD mil (slightly down)

· Foreigner transaction Net: -12.92 mil USD Sell 69.24 USD million and Buy 56.32 USD million

· Derivative market Trading value: USD 149.60 million; VN30F1802 @ 1000; VN30F1803 @ 1005; VN30F1806 @ 1035; VN30F1809 @ 1050

Corporate update:

· MBB (28,900, +2.1%, Mkt Cap $2.05 Bil – Current price VND 25,400share – P/E FW 8.0x – P/B 1.4x – FO 20%.) Our analyst target the stocks at 34,100/share and expect a rise in 2018’s EAT to VND 6,050 bil, +40% yoy, EPS of VND 3,192/share. Investment highlights

o Business results are expected to grow strongly since 2017. 2017 Parent EAT was VND 4,294 billion is (+44% yoy). High profitability, NIM was 4.07%, just behind VPB while low CIR = 40.69%, only higher than TCB, VPB. The bank’s expected ROE = 15% over the next three years (2016 ROE =12.15%).

o Good asset quality. NPL ratio = 1.33% (9M2017). Total doubtful assets = VND19 trillion, 66% of equity. The loan loss coverage ratio = 87%. MBB will finish making provision for VAMC bond in mid-2018. à Provision cost for credit losses are expected to decline sharply, down 34% in 2018.

o Mcredit operated officially in May, 2017 in consumer finance which is new and strong growth in Vietnam. MBB sold 49% of Mcredit to Shinsei à increase MBB’s BV by ~ VND 490 bil

Catalysts: New listed banks at high valuation; Divestment from Mcredit, MBland; Mcredit booming; and Risks : M&A with PGbank

Comments:

· Global market sell off. The Dow posted its second 1,000-point decline of the week but ending ~80 short of Tuesday’s intraday low. Global stocks plunged for a week and U.S. stock futures fluctuated. But nothing can compare to cryptocurrency, not even close. Bitcoin slid to below $6,000, and now recover and stand at $8.000 from a peak of $20,000 Dec 2017.

 

· Black Swan and Snow in Hanoi. Back to Vietnam, there was snow in Hanoi’s suburban and Black Swan in Hoan Kiem Lake (the birds was moved to other lake right after the stocks fell 😀 ). Two things that most hanoian have never seen before, just like what happen in the stock market in this week. The Q42017’s Business result is running out of steam when most of the biggest stocks announced their numbers. A ~ 20% growth of Q42017’s PAT seem not enough to calm Vietnam market which are increasing correlation with global markets recently. People blame (1) The global sell off, (2) margin lending (1st of Mar) and (3) recent USD 737 million IPOs (Foreign investors counted for 54%) for the drop. There is a rumor that the SSC might consider postpone the application of new margin lending policies to June 2018

Picture of the day 09th Feb 2018: Black Swan in Hoan Kiem Lake, Hanoi

Source: Sohoa

It is a long week J nice weekend

Cheers

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