[Long’s View] January In A Minute (PVS) 02.02.2018 (DELAYED)

|Includes: VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

Summary

  • In a very busy earnings day, Stocks wobbled between gains and losses before settling at a higher close.
  • PVS (VND 26,800/share, +5.9%, Market cap VND 10,542 bil , PE FW 13.31x, PB FW 0.87x, FO 17.17%). The biggest in oil & gas services in Vietnam.
  • January In A Minute. Macro: PMI 53.4; retail sale +9.5%yoy, VND/USD flat, FDI disbursed +10.5%, CPI 0.51% mom; net import USD 0.3 billion; interest rate stable. Market: VNindex +12.8%.(ranked 3rd in world stock).
  • Q4 earning updated: +25.3% (yoy). 734 companies published their Q4’s numbers whosePAT reached VND 32,997 billion, up 25.3% over the same period.
  • The holiday’s spirit likely to affect investors’ behavior next month. Moreover, the new decision about margin lending (1st of Mar) and the recent USD 737 million IPOs (Foreign investors counted for 54%) will also affect the market.

Dear Value Clients and partners;

·         In a very busy earnings day, Stocks wobbled between gains and losses before settling at a higher close. Bitcoin suffered one of its worst months ever in January, and February isn’t looking any better at the moment. Back to Vietnam market, Financial sector lead the gain of 1.63%, followed by consumer staple (+1.18%) while the consumer Discretionary and healthcare suffered heavy down of  -2.95% and -1.75%.

Today’s Markets:

·         Indexes : VN-Index 0.49%, HNX-Index 0.67%,  Upcom -0.59%

·         Active : HOSE: VIC, VJC, CTG, NVL, HPG.   HNX: SHB, ACB, PVS, SHS.

·         Index movers : Leader: VNM, VPB, VCB, CTG, VIC  Laggard: MWG, GAS, MSN, ROS, PLX

·         Foreigner, Buy : VIC, MWG, PVD, PLX, TTF.  Sell: VJC, HPG, HDB, CII, MSN

·         Notice stocks : CTG, NVL, PVD, DIG, KBC, NVD, PDR, PVS, SHB, ACB, HVN.

·         Trading volume : ~ 271.1 million shares

·         Trading value : VND 7183.2 bil ~ 316.44 USD mil (slightly down)

·         Foreigner transaction Net: 12.8 mil USD Sell 40.9 USD million and Buy 53.7 USD million

·         Derivative market Trading value: USD 118.8 million; VN30F1802 @ 1080.00

·         VN30F1803 @ 1093.40; VN30F1806 @ 1120.00; VN30F1809 @  1149.10

Corporate update:

 

·         PVS (VND 26,800/share, +5.9%, Market cap VND 10,542 bil , PE FW 13.31x, PB FW 0.87x, FO 17.17%). The biggest in oil & gas services in Vietnam. After be mentioned in our email, 26th Sep 2017 ; 21st Nov 2017 and on the update report of 08th Nov 2017, PVS have been outperforming the market. Lately, the stock dived and our analyst target PVS at VND 29,160 in 2018. Investment highlights

·         EPC Segment: Expected total revenue 2018 of VND 6,000 billion, in which, the Ca Rong Do (Red Emperor) Project will be booked $200 million

·         FSO / FPSO Segment: revenue may decrease due to renewal contract with lower price. With Lam Son FPSO, customers terminate the contract before term, PVS will receive contract compensation of about VND 5,000 billion, PVS will use to pay debts. Other income may be $ 3-4 million.

·         Issuing shares: 142,944,134 additional shares to be issued in Q1/2018, in which 31,269,029 shares of 7% share dividend and 111,675,105 shares of VND 10,000/share for Ca Rong Do FPSO.

·         Catalyst: the recovery of oil price, the operation of Ca Rong Do Project, listing stocks on the HSX

Comments:  

·         January In A Minute. Macro: PMI 53.4; retail sale +9.5%yoy, VND/USD flat, FDI disbursed +10.5%, CPI 0.51% mom; net import USD 0.3 billion; interest rate stable. Market: VNindex +12.8% (ranked 3rd in world stock index); VNindex + Hnindex USD 143 billion of marketcap, daily liquidity jump to USD 423 million, foreigner net buy 392 million; P/E 20.3 times.

·         Q4 earning updated: +25.3% (yoy). 734 companies published their Q4’s numbers whosePAT reached VND 32,997 billion, up 25.3% over the same period. Leaders:  BID, VCB, VRE, NVL, GAS, VPB, DHG, MBB, HPG and SAB. Lagger: PPC, REE, HSG, DCM, NVT, KDC, SGR

·         What to expect this Feb. Next month is the TET holiday in Vietnam (14th to 20th Feb). The holiday’s spirit likely to affect investors’ behavior next month. Moreover, the new decision about margin lending (1st of Mar) and the recent USD 737 million IPOs (Foreign investors counted for 54%) will also affect the market.

 

Table of the day 02nd Feb 2018: January’s Foreigner netbuy in Asian Stock markets (we are not the only market)

Country Net buy FII (Jan 2018)
India 2,080
Indonesia 132
Japan* 5,674
Malaysia 852
Phillipines 45
Korea      1,960
Sri Lanka 26
Taiwan      2,856
Thailand         (177)
Pakistan         90
Vietnam         392

Source: Bloomberg, BSC Research (*) until 19th Jan 2018

 

Nice weekend,

 

Cheers

 

Long Tran

     Trần Thăng Long (Mr.) /      Head of Reseach and Institutional Client
BIDV Securities Company

10th – 11th FL, BIDV Tower, 35 Hang Voi, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi, Vietnam

Description: mail-09 longtt@bsc.com.vn Description: Phone2-09 +84 4 3 926 4660 Kết quả hình ảnh cho web icon   https://www.bsc.com.vn
Description: Phone-09 +84 3 935 2722 (Ext: 118) Description: Fax-09 +84 4 2220 0669 Kết quả hình ảnh cho linkedin icon   http://vn.linkedin.com/pub/long-tran/32/79b/934

*      Long Tran Thang’s Articles

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