[BSC Vietnam] What Are The National Assembly Guidelines Of 2018 (BMP) 04.12.2017 (DELAYED)

Summary

  • Today is my birthday 04th Dec (and google know it all). My Birth day wish is that your NAV getting bigger and bigger. :).
  • Back to the market, Vnindex had another above +1% section with 9/10 sectors advanced.The leader of today is Energy (+3.98%), after the OPEC meeting.
  • BMP (VND97,000/share ,+1.5 %, market cap of USD 340 million). On 4th Dec, 2017, BMP was traded at VND 97,000/share, equivalent to P/E FW 2018 of 29x.
  • What Happened During National Assembly? Most of the rise (Vnindex +13.7% in one month) is contributed by 15 bluechips including (1) the divestment stocks VNM (+24.5%), SAB (+14.4%), BHN (+18.6%), FPT (+14%); (2) The new stocks effect VIC (+38%), VRE (+28%); (3) The Bankers VCB (+17.4%), CTG (+21%), BID (+18%)….
  • The National Assembly’s main decision. 2018 : budget deficit at 3.7% GDP, GDP target 6.5%-6.7%, CPI less than 4%. They also talked about Long Thanh’s budget for land clearance (the new airport) and estimate VND 118 trillion for highway (2017-2020).

Dear  Value clients and partners

·         Today is my birthday 04th Dec (and google know it all). One client asked me whether I received many thanks for calling a number of right stocks this year. I answer that I don’t expect any thank, your profit is my happiness, so no worries. My Birth day wish is that your NAV getting bigger and bigger. 🙂

 

 

·         Back to the market, Vnindex had another above +1% section with 9/10 sectors advanced. The leader of today is Energy (+3.98%), after the OPEC meeting, suddenly so many people turn bullish about oil. Other gainers including finance (+2.33%), consumer staple (+2.47%), healthcare (+1.81%) and material (+1.58%). Today, the only loser is Industry (-0.85%)

 

Today’s Markets:

·         Indexes, VN-Index +1.01%, HNX-Index +1.05%,  Upcom -0.25%

·         Active: HOSE: FLC, STB, ASM, HSG, SSI.   HNX:  SHB, PVS, PVX, HUT, KLF.

·         Foreigner, Buy: SSI, PVD, SBT, HT1, PLX.   Sell: DIG, SAB, GAS, CAV, BFC.

·         Notice stocks:  ROS, FLC, VNM, HSG, SSI, CTG, STB, SHB, ACB.

·         Trading volume: ~ 367.81 million shares

·         Trading value: VND 7481.37 bil ~ 333.42 USD mil

·         Foreigner transaction Net: -1.15 mil USD Sell 41.97 USD million and Buy 40.81  USD million

·         Derivative market: Trading value: VND 769 billion ~ USD 34.31 million, VN30F1712 988; VN30F1801 1005; VN30F1803 1018; VN30F1806 1024

Corporate update:

 

·         BMP (VND97,000/share ,+1.5 %, market cap of USD 340 million). On 4th Dec, 2017, BMP was traded at VND 97,000/share, equivalent to P/E FW 2018 of 29x. The FTSE Vietnam ETF will add BMP to their portfolio this time (~ buy in around 1 million stocks ~ USD 4,5 million). The company is also waiting for further announcement from SCIC about the divestment plan this month.

9M2017 updated, Total volumes rose by 8% to 64,500 tons, in which, PVC pipes accounted for 92% (up 7.5% yoy), HDPE accounted for 4% (growth over 20% YoY) and PPR accounted for nearly 3% (growth of 30-35% YoY). NAPT declined by 36% yoy due to (1) fiercer competition, (2) higher plastic resin. (1) Compared to 2016, growth rate is much slower even the firm give more 4% basic discount rate to 15% (total discount may reach to 21-23%). On 40th anniversary of the company, the discount rate up 4% which applied from 9th Dec to 16th Nov, 2017. (2) Average plastic resin rose by 8.5% in 9M2017 compared to average price in 2016 and expected to rose by the same rate in whole year.

 

BMP estimates EBT of 2017 reaching VND 600 billion. Our analyst forecasts the net sales and PAT in 2017 would reach VND 3,479 billion (+ 5% YoY) and VND 438 billion (-30% YoY) respectively. In 2018, these numbers would be VND 3,838 billion (+10 YoY) and VND 310 billion (-29% YoY), equivalent to EPS of VND 3,308 / share. In 2018, many large organizations forecast that the average Brent oil prices would range from $55 to $58 a barrel, well above the 2017 average ($54.07 per barrel). As a result, PVC prices might remain high. This may continue to impact negatively on profitability of BMP.

 

Comments:         

 

·         What Happened During National Assembly?  In our email (23rd Oct 2017), we mention that Vnindex fluctuate much more than normal during NA’s meeting and asked you whether you are you ready for this wild ride? That is also true this time, HNX only climb +3.5% but the +13.7% of Vnindex is a record. Most of the rise is contributed by 15 bluechips including (1) the divestment stocks VNM (+24.5%), SAB (+14.4%), BHN (+18.6%), FPT (+14%); (2) The new stocks effect VIC (+38%), VRE (+28%); (3) The Bankers VCB (+17.4%), CTG (+21%), BID (+18%)…

·         The National Assembly‘s main decision. (link). They pass 2018 budget estimates: budget deficit at 3.7% GDP, Budget collection VNĐ1.3 quadrillion (US$57.86 billion) and spending at VNĐ1.52 quadrillion in 2018. Budget deficit in 2018 at ~3.7 % of GDP, GDP target 6.5%-6.7%, CPI less than 4%. They also talked about Long Thanh’s budget for land clearance (the new airport) and estimate VND 118 trillion for highway (2017-2020). The NA also asked the Government to be cautious in fiscal policies.

Table of the day: What Happened During National Assembly?

% change during National Assembly
Number Open Close VN-Index HNX-Index
1 21/07/2011 05/8/2011 -4.6% -4.5%
2 21/10/2011 26/11/2011 -5.4% -9.7%
3 21/05/2012 21/06/2012 -1.7% 0.2%
4 22/10/2012 23/11/2012 -4.0% -6.4%
5 20/05/2013 21/06/2013 2.3% 6.2%
6 21/10/2013 29/11/2013 1.2% 6.0%
7 20/05/2014 24/06/2014 7.3% 5.5%
8 20/10/2014 28/11/2014 -3.7% -0.3%
9 20/05/2015 26/06/2015 5.7% 7.8%
10 20/10/2015 27/11/2015 -1.2% 0.6%
11 21/03/2016 12/04/2016 1.3% 0.2%
12 20/07/2016 29/07/2016 -1.2% -2.1%
13 20/10/2016 23/11/2016 -0.4% -4.3%
14 22/05/2017 21/06/2017 3.1% 6.4%
15 23/10/2017 24/11/2017 13.7% 3.5%
Average  (excluded number 15)   -0.1% 0.4%

 

Source: Bloomberg and BSC

Cheers

 

Long Tran

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