[BSC Vietnam] New Kids On The Block (PVS) 21.11.2017 (DELAYED)

Summary

VN30 futures have been extremely volatile recently (link)while BSC will offer free services until year end. Vnindex had a big jump in today’s afternoon, slow down and close +1.63%.

VS (VND 17,000,-0.6%, market cap USD 250 million). On 21/11/2017, PVS shares were traded at VND17,000, PE 2017 = 9.8x. The stock is in our bottom fishing list (link).

New Kids On The Block. We have mentioned before in our email (Email) on Nov 2016 that Vietnam s will heavily depend on the new listing stocks. Nov 2017: 40% of top 10 and 40% of top 15 are newstocks.

ETF review last Quarter Update. (1) ETF FTSE VN adds 1.5% BMP (buy 1 million shares) and DPM (sold 3.9 million shares), ITA (sold 11.6 million shares; (2) VNM ETF added SHB (buy 14.4 million shares). In addition, PDR, TCH PLX could be added too.

 

Dear valued clients and partners,

 

·        VN30 futures have been extremely volatile recently (link)while BSC will offer free services until year end. Vnindex had a big jump in today’s afternoon, slow down and close +1.63%. At the same time VN30F1806 climb +3.26% to 1,015. IT and energy both down -1.18% to -1.5% while 5/10 other sectors looked like they stand still. The dynamic behind VNindex rocket are including consumer staple (+2.1%), Finance (+1.27%) and real estate (+0.48%) thanks to VIC, VRE, VNM, VCB, MSN, and BVH…

 

Today’s Markets:

·        Indexes, VN-Index +1.63%, HNX-Index -0.08%, Upcom+0.46%

·        Active: HOSE: FLC, OGC, MBB, VRE, SSI  HNX: SHB, PVS, KLF, VCG, CEO.

·        Foreigner, Buy: VJC, HPG, SSI, VRE, VCB. Sell: VIC, MSN, BMP, NVL, VNM .

·        Notice stocks: VRE, VIC, VJC, VJC, MBB, VNM, VCB, PVS, SHB, VCS

·        Trading volume: ~ 280.39 million shares

·         Trading value: VND 7186.53  bil ~ 320.17 USD mil

·        Foreigner transaction Net: 1.00 mil USD Sell 37.32 USD million and Buy 38.32 USD million

·        Derivative market: Total contracts: 16,254 contracts Trading value: VND 1,555 billion ~ USD 69.28 million

Corporate update:

 

·         PVS (VND 17,000,-0.6%, market cap USD 250 million). On 21/11/2017, PVS shares were traded at VND17,000, PE 2017 = 9.8x. The stock is in our bottom fishing list (link)

9M2017 business result, PVS’s Rev was VND10,873 billion (-21.88% yoy), gross margin was 7.25%, slightly improved compared to 5.45% of the same period 2016. Gross profit improved mainly in the business of Seismic-GEO survey-ROV of VND 26.91 billion, Port & Supply Base of VND 222 billion (+14.62% yoy) and other services of VND 33 billion (+231.71% yoy). The other segments went down. Parent company’s EAT was VND 676 billion in 9M2017, down 17% yoy due to a decrease in other income from fines, compensation, bonus from customers and reversal of projects, EPS 9M2017 = VND 1,459.

 

We also note that the segment FSO/FPSO performance is showing signs of deterioration as the profit in joint ventures in 9M2017 was just VND 442.6 bn (-11.71% yoy) due to the FPSO Lam Son contract ended in late June, the company is negotiating to lease, FPSO Lam Son rental fee may be lower.

 

We forecast PVS’s 2017 revenue will be VND 15,065 billion (-19.36% yoy) mainly due to a sharp fall in EPCI for offshore facilities (down 36.74% yoy in 9M2017), EAT to parent company will be VND 880.35 billion (-15.25% yoy), EPS 2017 of VND 1,734 (after deducting 12% of bonus and welfare fund).

 

Comments:                                             

 

·         New Kids On The Block. We have mentioned before in our email (Email) on Nov 2016 that Vietnam stocks market will heavily depend on the new listing stocks, we stressed it in our Q42016 report (link) and 2017 annual strategy presentation and report (link). After one year look at what we get so far:

o   Nov 2016 in our comment: Blue-chips will very likely to be replaced by new comers in 12 months (about 30% of top 10, 40% of top 15 and about 50% of top 30).

o   Nov 2017: 40% of top 10 and 40% of top 15 are replaced by new stocks, and we still have many more stocks to come since the IPO and divestment process are back to the game again. Then the index’s movement will become more and more depend on new stocks and new divestment plan. In the meantime, Futures keep dancing around.

 

·         ETF review last Quarter Update. Based on data upto 14th Nov, our TA forecast the ETF FTSE VN and VNM ETF portfolio review as follows: (1) ETF FTSE VN adds 1.5% BMP (buy 1 million shares) and DPM (sold 3.9 million shares), ITA (sold 11.6 million sharesdue to liquidity; (2) VNM ETF added SHB (buy 14.4 million shares). In addition, PDR, TCH shares are also quite close to FTSE VN’s requirement; so as PLX to VNM ETF. (page 9 & 10)

Good Nite

 

 

Cheers

 

Long Tran

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