[BSC Vietnam] Knock Knock Trick Or Treat? (DVN) 26.10.2017 (DELAYED)

Long Tran Thang
Long Tran Thang’s Blog

long only, contrarian, value, research analyst
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.
|Includes: VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM)

Summary

Knock Knock Trick or Treat. ROS save the day by adding 2.8 points to VN30 and 2.1 points to Vnindex.  Indexes, VN-IndexTrading value: 207.47 USD mil; Futures: ~ USD 64.20  million

DVN (VND 16,300: -1.2%, Market capital: USD 150 million). Our analyst have Target price of DVN at VND 17,331.Estimates revenue &PAT VND 6,429 billion (+6.5% yoy) and 184.6 billion (-71% yoy)

449 companies announce the third quarter’s result (59% ) with a total EAT of 19,394 billion, up 47% over the same period of 2016 and 11% over last quarter

Knock Knock Trick or Treat is a Halloween custom for children in many countries.This year I wonder the Halloween night will you Trick-or-treating when Mr. Market knock on the door.

Dear Valued clients and partners,

  • Knock Knock Trick or Treat. ROS save the day by adding 2.8 points to VN30 and 2.1 points to Vnindex. But that rise alone have VNindex nearly flat while 7/10 sectors closed lower than yesterday. Utilities down -1.2%, followed by material (-0.9%2) and real estate (-0.78%). At the same time winners were led by Consumer staple (+0.70%) and Industry (+0.74%)

Today’s Markets:

·         Indexes, VN-Index -0.07%, HNX-Index -1.01%,  Upcom -0.39%

·         Active: HOSE: FLC, ASM, HQC, HHS, KBC.   HNX: KLF, SHB, CEO, PIV, DST.

·         Foreigner, Buy: VNM, VJC, FCN, VCB, BVH.  Sell: HSG, HPG, KBC, HBC, ROS.

·         Notice stocks:  FLC, HBC, VNM, MWG, HSG, VIC, PIV, DST, VCG

·         Trading volume: ~244.60  million shares

·         Trading value: VND 4661.25  bil ~ 207.47 USD mil

·         Foreigner transaction Net: 4.96  mil USD Sell 15.42 USD million and Buy 20.38 USD million

·         Futures: VN30F1711 820.8; VN30F1712 821.1; VN30F1803 827; VN30F1806 826.3; Trading value: VND 1262.3billion ~ USD 64.20  million

Corporate update:

·         DVN (VND 16,300: -1.2%, Market capital: USD 150 million). Our analyst have Target price of DVN at VND 17,331 . The company has following key points:

DVN is a holding with 4 subsidiaries: Codupha (66.35%) , CPC1 (65.41%), TW3 (65%) and Laos Codupha (62.17%);  8 affiliates including Sanofi Synthelabo (30%), Imexpharm (22.87%), Danapha (29.86%) etc. along with long term investment in more than 11 pharmaceutical fims such as Mekophar, OPC, Vidipha and Vimedimex. Those investment brought about 67% of DVN’s profit before tax in 1H2017 in form of gain/loss from affiliates and dividend (VND 95.7 billion). The remaining came from pharmaceutical distribution, mainly through its subsidiaries with a wide network of distribution center and branches nationwide.

Business Update: In 1H2017, net sales of DVN was VND 3,371 billion (+8% yoy), gain from affiliates was 94.6 billion (+28% yoy) and net income reached 119.2 billion (+5.5% yoy).

 

We estimates revenue and net income of DVN in 2017 will be VND 6,429 billion (+6.5% yoy) and 184.6 billion (-71% yoy) because financial income will drop significantly due to marginal dividend recorded (affected by accounting regulation for period after divestment) and declining cash and equivalent (DVN has to deposit about VND 700 billion to the government).

Comments:                                             

 

·         The Q3/2017 business result updated. There were 449 companies on the HSX and HNX announce the third quarter’s result (59% of the market) with a total EAT of 19,394 billion, up 47% over the same period of 2016 and 11% over last quarter. Profit rise came mainly from banking (VCB, VPB), real Estate stocks, material (HPG, NTP) and Oil & Gas (GAS). The market will looking forward to remain Blue chips’ results announcements by the end of this week.

·         Knock Knock Trick or Treat is a Halloween custom for children in many countries. Children in costumes travel from house-to-house, asking for treats with the phrase “Trick or treat”. The “treat” is usually some form of candy. The “trick” is a usually idle threat to perform mischief on the homeowners or their property if no “treat” is given. This year I wonder the Halloween night will you Trick-or-treating when Mr. Market knock on the door.

·         Happy Halloween Scroll down to see the picture (by the way, the stocks appeared randomly so don’t try to guess what I mean, Trick or Treat).

I will be on business trip for a week. During that time I will have limited access to the internet. If you have request to BSC, Please contact Mr. Khoa khoabn@bsc.com.vn (Macro/market), Ms. Huong huonglt@bsc.com.vn (Equity/sector) and Mr. Phong phongvt@bsc.com.vn or ICD@bsc.com.vn(institutional Client)

 

Cheers

 

Long Tran

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best Regards,
Long Tran

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s